Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
State Cases Per Million
New York 14,505
New Jersey 11,880
Massachusetts 7,740
Connecticut 6,894
Rhode Island 6,729
Louisiana 5,702
District of Columbia 5,241
Michigan 3,723
Delaware 3,672
Illinois 3,296
Pennsylvania 3,251
Maryland 2,938
South Dakota 2,426
Colorado 2,251
Indiana 2,138
Georgia 2,093
Mississippi 1,921
Washington 1,770
Iowa 1,619
Nebraska 1,500
Nevada 1,473
Virginia 1,448
Florida 1,435
Vermont 1,350
Ohio 1,333
New Hampshire 1,318
Tennessee 1,314
New Mexico 1,269
Alabama 1,267
Utah 1,232
Missouri 1,112
California 1,071
Kansas 1,057
North Dakota 1,053
South Carolina 1,020
Idaho 984
Wisconsin 976
Arkansas 963
Kentucky 874
Arizona 862
Texas 844
North Carolina 822
Oklahoma 806
Maine 736
Wyoming 625
Minnesota 611
West Virginia 571
Oregon 534
Alaska 460
Hawaii 421
Montana 416
Puerto Rico 409
Guam NA
Northern Mariana Islands NA
Virgin Islands NA

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
State New Cases Per Million
Massachusetts 503
New York 427
Rhode Island 405
New Jersey 362
District of Columbia 232
Connecticut 197
Nebraska 185
Illinois 175
Maryland 164
Iowa 142
Delaware 128
Pennsylvania 126
Colorado 120
Michigan 108
South Dakota 108
Indiana 96
Mississippi 92
Kansas 90
Louisiana 89
Virginia 82
New Mexico 71
Georgia 66
Tennessee 62
Arkansas 57
North Dakota 54
Utah 51
New Hampshire 50
Nevada 49
Wisconsin 48
North Carolina 44
Minnesota 42
Ohio 41
Washington 41
Alabama 40
California 40
Puerto Rico 40
Florida 39
Kentucky 39
Arizona 37
Missouri 37
South Carolina 31
Texas 31
Oklahoma 25
Maine 20
Wyoming 20
Oregon 15
West Virginia 15
Idaho 13
Vermont 10
Hawaii 2
Alaska 1
Montana 1
Guam NA
Northern Mariana Islands NA
Virgin Islands NA

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
State Deaths Per Million
New York 853
New Jersey 660
Connecticut 522
Massachusetts 396
Louisiana 353
Michigan 327
District of Columbia 233
Rhode Island 202
Illinois 148
Pennsylvania 143
Maryland 131
Colorado 116
Indiana 116
Delaware 115
Washington 97
Georgia 84
Mississippi 74
Vermont 73
Nevada 66
Ohio 60
Virginia 51
Florida 49
Oklahoma 49
Kentucky 46
Missouri 45
Wisconsin 45
New Hampshire 44
New Mexico 44
Alabama 43
Minnesota 43
California 42
Kansas 40
Arizona 37
Maine 37
Iowa 35
South Carolina 32
Idaho 31
North Carolina 28
Nebraska 27
Tennessee 27
Texas 22
North Dakota 20
Oregon 20
West Virginia 18
Puerto Rico 16
Arkansas 15
Montana 13
Utah 12
Wyoming 12
South Dakota 11
Alaska 9
Hawaii 9
Guam NA
Northern Mariana Islands NA
Virgin Islands NA

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
State New Deaths Per Million
New Jersey 30
Connecticut 29
Massachusetts 26
New York 22
District of Columbia 17
Michigan 15
Louisiana 12
Rhode Island 10
Maryland 9
Colorado 8
Illinois 8
Delaware 7
Indiana 6
Minnesota 3
Mississippi 3
New Mexico 3
Pennsylvania 3
Vermont 3
Virginia 3
California 2
Iowa 2
Maine 2
Missouri 2
Nevada 2
New Hampshire 2
Ohio 2
Oklahoma 2
Washington 2
Arizona 1
Florida 1
Georgia 1
Kentucky 1
Nebraska 1
North Carolina 1
South Carolina 1
Texas 1
Wisconsin 1
Alabama 0
Alaska 0
Arkansas 0
Hawaii 0
Idaho 0
Kansas 0
Montana 0
North Dakota 0
Oregon 0
Puerto Rico 0
South Dakota 0
Tennessee 0
Utah 0
West Virginia 0
Wyoming 0
Guam NA
Northern Mariana Islands NA
Virgin Islands NA

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 95,244 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 55,359 2 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 38,901 3 99
Rockland New York 34,044 4 99
Marion Ohio 33,368 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 3,188 215 93
Richland South Carolina 1,893 442 85
Pierce Washington 1,451 589 81
York South Carolina 630 1272 59
Orange California 620 1286 59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 7,011 1 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 2 99
Terrell Georgia 1,993 3 99
Early Georgia 1,472 4 99
Nassau New York 1,413 5 99
Pierce Washington 52 655 79
Richland South Carolina 43 741 76
Davidson Tennessee 32 901 71
Orange California 12 1228 60
York South Carolina 11 1247 60

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons